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       首頁 >> 理論經濟學
      杜飛輪:中國經濟發展韌性強
      2019年06月10日 10:01 來源:人民日報 作者:杜飛輪 字號

      內容摘要:

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      作者簡介:

        原文標題:中國有信心有能力應對各種風險挑戰

       

          新中國成立70年來,我國物質基礎積累深厚,綜合國力和國際影響力不斷提高。新時代中國經濟發展潛力和空間依然很大,應對外部沖擊的能力不斷增強,中國有信心、有決心、有能力應對各種風險挑戰。

        中國在應對風險挑戰方面具有制度優勢

        我國社會主義制度具有集中力量辦大事的優勢,這種優勢是經過長期實踐得來的,是我們成就事業的重要法寶,也是我們應對中美經貿摩擦的最大優勢和根本保證。

        新中國成立之初,在經濟極端困難、技術基礎薄弱、帝國主義封鎖等嚴峻形勢下,中國共產黨帶領全國人民集中力量辦成了一系列涉及國計民生的大事,為國家發展打下堅實基礎,捍衛了國家主權、安全和發展利益。改革開放后,中國共產黨繼續發揮社會主義制度能夠集中力量辦大事的優勢,推動中國改革開放和社會主義現代化建設取得巨大成就。

        黨的十八大以來,以習近平同志為核心的黨中央把方向、謀大局、定政策、促改革,在更高水平上實現了全黨全社會思想上的統一、政治上的團結、行動上的一致,為應對風險挑戰提供了堅強政治保證和組織基礎。當前,全黨和全國人民思想高度統一,集中力量辦大事的優勢在新的時代條件下正在轉化為強大治理效能,使社會主義制度優勢得到進一步鞏固和發揮。

        中國具備應對風險挑戰的雄厚物質基礎

        新中國成立70年來,特別是黨的十八大以來取得的歷史性成就, 為實現“兩個一百年”奮斗目標奠定了雄厚的物質基礎,是我們應對各類風險挑戰的堅實基礎。

        綜合國力位居世界前列。從經濟總量看,2018年,中國國內生產總值突破90萬億元,穩居世界第二。從經濟增量看,近年來中國對世界經濟增長的貢獻率為30%左右,日益成為世界經濟增長的動力之源、穩定之錨。改革開放以來,中國經濟年均增長9.3%,GDP規模實現平均每8年翻一番,遠高于同期世界經濟不到3%的年均增速。從財政實力看,2018年我國財政收入超過18萬億元,為促進經濟發展、保障改善民生、調整經濟結構、有效防范風險提供了堅實的資金保障。從國際影響力看,中國經常項目盈余快速積累,吸引外資不斷增加,已成為深度融入世界經濟的全球第一貨物貿易大國、主要的引進外資大國及對外投資大國。2018年末,中國外匯儲備余額達30727億美元,穩居世界第一位。

        產業體系完備。農業基礎地位更加鞏固,實現了由單一種植業為主的傳統農業向農林牧漁業全面發展的轉變,現代農業體系初步建立和完善。工業發展向中高端邁進,門類齊全、獨立完整、有較高技術水平的現代工業體系正在形成。中國已成為全球第一制造業大國,占全球制造業的總產出接近20%。服務業層次不斷提升,現代服務業、戰略性新興服務業快速發展,形成了一批各具特色、業態多樣、功能完善的新興服務業集聚區和產業集群。

        基礎設施體系健全。從交通運輸看,綜合交通運輸網絡和服務能力顯著提升。2018年末,全國鐵路營業總里程達到13.1萬公里。其中,高鐵占世界高鐵總里程的2/3以上;全國公路總里程達到484.6萬公里,高速公路通車里程居世界之首;全國港口擁有生產用碼頭泊位23919個;定期航班航線總條數達4945條。從通信設施看,通信網絡已覆蓋全國。2018年末,全國電話用戶總數17.5億戶,其中移動電話用戶15.7億戶,移動電話普及率達112.2部/百人;固定互聯網寬帶接入用戶4.1億戶,移動寬帶用戶13.1億戶。

        要素保障充分有效。從勞動力供給看,勞動力資源仍然豐富,2018年全國16歲至59歲勞動力人口總數達8.97億人,占總人口比重64.3%。從資本供給看,2018年我國國民儲蓄率為44.9%,國內儲蓄率仍處于世界最高水平,資本供給充裕。從能源供給看,我國初步形成了煤、油、氣、可再生能源多輪驅動的能源生產體系,已成為世界能源生產第一大國,能源基礎保障作用顯著增強。

        巨大的發展潛能為我國提供了應對外部挑戰的有利條件

        作為世界上最大的發展中國家,我國巨大的市場規模優勢凸顯,新舊動能接續轉換有序,經濟發展韌性強,既為經濟持續穩定增長提供了強力支撐,也為我國抵御外部風險挑戰提供充足有效的回旋空間。

        從內需市場看,2009年至2017年,內需對經濟增長的貢獻率平均達到106%,消費的基礎作用和投資的關鍵作用日益明顯。我國擁有全球最大的統一市場,有全球最大的中等收入群體,消費成為拉動經濟增長的主要力量和壓艙石。2018年我國社會消費品零售總額達38.1萬億元。隨著居民收入不斷增加,國內消費市場仍有望以10%左右的速度持續增長。從服務市場看,服務業占GDP比重已經達到了52.2%,成為名副其實的第一大行業部門和經濟增長主要的驅動力。

        從人才和技術市場看,我國受過高等教育和職業教育的高素質人才有1.7億人,每年大學畢業生有800多萬人,大學本科及以上學歷的科技人力資源總量為3170萬人,全國研發人員總量超過620萬人,人口紅利正在轉向人才紅利。2017年,我國發明專利申請數達138.2萬件,我國已成為世界知識產權產出大國,發明專利申請量已連續7年居世界首位;國家鼓勵自主創新,各類市場主體的創業創新活力競相迸發,各類科技創新孵化器、加速器和眾創空間等新型科技服務組織日益壯大。

        穩中有進、穩中向好的發展態勢不會改變

        我國堅持穩中求進的工作總基調,圍繞穩就業、穩金融、穩外貿、穩外資、穩投資、穩預期,推出一系列政策舉措,經濟運行穩健性日益增強,穩中有進、穩中向好的發展態勢不會改變。

        深化供給側結構性改革舉措將進一步提升供給質量,“鞏固、增強、提升、暢通”繼續深入,營商環境持續優化,“放管服”改革不斷推進,市場主體活力和動力得到有效釋放。積極的財政政策加力提效,將增強企業獲得感和發展意愿。預算內投資和專項債規模逐步擴大,普惠性減稅與結構性減稅并舉,重點降低制造業和小微企業稅收及社保繳費負擔。穩健的貨幣政策為實體經濟提供合理充裕的流動性。貨幣政策傳導渠道逐步疏通,在重點緩解實體經濟特別是民營和小微企業融資難融資貴的同時,著力推進利率、匯率等領域改革。

        當前,我國財政預算赤字率為2.8%,低于3%的國際警戒線,政府債務負債率為36.2%,低于60%的國際警戒線。積極的財政政策和穩健的貨幣政策都為深化供給側結構性改革、促進形成強大國內市場、應對外部風險和不確定性沖擊預留了空間。

       

        (作者為中國宏觀經濟研究院形勢室主任)

      作者簡介

      姓名:杜飛輪 工作單位:

      轉載請注明來源:中國社會科學網 (責編:張文齊)
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