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       首頁 >> 智慧城市 >> 頭條
      城市“集聚效應”驅動中國經濟高質量發展
      2019年06月10日 09:12 來源:光明日報 作者:張慶華 字號

      內容摘要:得益于改革開放和思想解放所釋放出的力量,我國經濟保持了近40年的高速增長。當前,中國經濟正處于從高速增長向高質量發展轉換的階段。可以看到,城市化將成為未來中國經濟發展的重要驅動力之一。城市化是經濟增長的結果,同時也是重要推動力量。城市化進程將帶來人口和產業的集聚效應、推動技術進步、提高全要素生產率以及收入水平

      關鍵詞:

      作者簡介:

        得益于改革開放和思想解放所釋放出的力量,我國經濟保持了近40年的高速增長。當前,中國經濟正處于從高速增長向高質量發展轉換的階段。可以看到,城市化將成為未來中國經濟發展的重要驅動力之一。

        城市化是經濟增長的結果,同時也是重要推動力量。城市化進程將帶來人口和產業的集聚效應、推動技術進步、提高全要素生產率以及收入水平,這主要得益于技術外溢和更多樣化的中間品服務,以及更大的本地市場所帶來的貿易優勢,這都將成為中國經濟高質量增長的重要驅動力,也是我們能夠有效抵御外部風險、繼續深化改革擴大開放的底氣所在。

        回顧歷史,改革開放以來中國城市人口數量已由1978年的1.7億提高至2018年的8億。盡管中國人口城市化路徑大致符合世界趨勢,城市人口絕對規模急劇擴大,但不容忽視的是城市化速度落后于處于相同收入水平的國家。根據世界銀行數據,1978至2018年我國城市化年增長率不到4%,低于同等收入水平國家5%至6%的增長水平;2017我國城市化率為57%,也低于同等收入國家的平均城市化水平。

        中國城市化進程相對落后的重要原因在于中國農村流動人口沒能夠充分融入城市,享受與城市居民相同的公共服務。較大的差距意味著很大的進步空間,伴隨著戶籍制度改革發力、城市社會保障和基本公共服務水平的提高,中國城市化進程將顯著加快。我們根據聯合國以及國家統計局相關歷史數據,對未來城市化率水平做了測算:至2025年,城鎮化率能夠達到66%,至2035年有望達到75%至80%。這意味著未來十幾年的時間里,我國在現有基礎上將有近3億人口由農村遷到城市(凈增加數量)。

        應當說,上述變化將成為驅動中國經濟高質量發展的堅實力量,城市化將促使勞動就業從低生產率部門向高生產率部門轉移。城市化意味著經濟將從農業部門轉向工業部門和服務部門,分散的農業生產由集中的高生產率的工業和服務業生產所代替。據測算,到2035年中國第一產業、第二產業、低端服務業和高端服務業就業人口占比將分別達到6%、26%、34%、34%。這就意味著現在占到整個就業人口27%的農業就業人口將大量涌向第二和第三產業重新配置。轉移帶來生產率的顯著提高,會對中國經濟增長起到重要作用。

        通過規劃合理的城市人口規模,能最大限度地發揮“集聚效應”,顯著提高人均可支配收入。隨著城市化推進和產業結構升級,中國城市規模在不斷增長,但中國目前城市結構不合理、城市規模普遍偏低、大城市數量不足。根據城市經濟學理論,每個城市都存在一個最優人口規模。在該最優人口規模下,集聚正效應最大限度地發揮,城市人均福利即可支配收入最高。我們可以通過構建“城市人口規模合適度指數”(即實際人口/最優人口)來考察目前的中國城市人口規模過大還是過小,并且預測未來的發展趨勢。實證研究結果顯示,在2010年約88%的地級城市人口規模不到最優規模的40%,此外在絕大多數城市人口不足的同時,北京、上海、深圳、天津、重慶等5座城市的規模顯著偏大。值得注意的是,在東部沿海地區特別是長江三角洲和珠江三角洲地區,開始顯現出向規模結構合理的城市群發展的趨勢。

        在理論分析中,絕大多數城市人口不足和少數城市人口過多都會造成較大福利損失。根據國家統計局的數據,2018年我國城鎮居民人均可支配收入39251元,若城市能達到最優化規模,粗略估算一半以上的城市的人均可支配收入可提高1.2萬元或更多。這說明未來我們通過城市規模結構的調整,將會顯著提高人均收入,促進整個經濟效率提升。城市規模的調整,將得益于中國正在加快深化的要素市場改革,促進生產要素比如資本和勞動力在不同城市間合理流動。此外,戶籍制度改革的推進、土地市場的改革,都將進一步推進中國城市化進程,幫助農業人口更順利地流入城市。未來,北上廣深等超大城市也可通過發展多中心和衛星城,更合理地布局規劃、集約開發土地等,實現城市本身的最優規模。

        城市化會拉動消費,通過本地市場效應帶來貿易優勢,內需驅動力日益強勁。中國具備廣闊的國內市場,伴隨著城市化進程特別是農村人口進入城市將帶來巨大的本地消費市場。隨著中國產業結構升級、城市化推進,農民工將成為城市化最主要的力量。2017年新生代農民工占比首次過半,1980年及以后出生的新生代農民工逐漸成為農民工主體,占全國農民工總量的50.5%。正在逐漸成為主體的新生代農民工具有強烈的城市化意愿和需求。當農民工的福利待遇大幅提高后將促進消費支出,那時候農民工對中國經濟的巨大影響才見端倪。更進一步,城市化會從生活方式上改變人們的消費行為,從而提升消費率。城市的“集聚效應”會帶來人均可支配收入提高,也將進一步推動消費。根據貿易理論,本地消費市場潛力的增加將會帶來貿易優勢,促進經濟的增長。

        總而言之,通過深化改革可以預期中國城市化進程將進一步加快。還有一點值得注意:過去30年,中國城市基礎設施建設突飛猛進,房地產存量也具規模,這為城市化提供了硬件支持。未來,需要引導城市人口規模合理化,發展城市群,充分發揮城市的“集聚效應”以提高生產效率和人均可支配收入,帶動內需市場,進而推動中國經濟從高速增長向高質量發展階段轉變。

       

         (作者:張慶華,系北京大學光華管理學院應用經濟學系教授、博士生導師)

       

      作者簡介

      姓名:張慶華 工作單位:北京大學光華管理學院應用經濟學系

      職稱:教授

      轉載請注明來源:中國社會科學網 (責編:韓卓吾)
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