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       首頁 >> 爭鳴
      不受霸凌所亂 保持戰略定力
      2019年06月05日 09:05 來源:光明日報 作者:林宏宇 字號

      內容摘要:中美合作可以辦成有利于兩國和世界的大事,中美對抗對兩國和世界肯定是災難。

      關鍵詞:

      作者簡介:

        據國外媒體報道,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)公布的一項研究表明,在中美貿易戰中,美國對中國商品征收的關稅幾乎全部由美國進口商承擔,一些關稅已轉嫁給美國消費者,其余部分則由進口商通過降低利潤率來消化。美國智庫“貿易伙伴”2019年2月發布的研究報告顯示,如美國對所有中國輸美商品加征25%的關稅,一個四口之家每年支出將增加2294美元,就業崗位將減少216萬個。

        這些數據和事實,對美方所謂的對中國商品征收更高的關稅“充實了美國國庫”的觀點,是最直接的駁斥。美方發動的貿易戰損人不利己。貿易戰對美國生產商的影響更為復雜,受關稅影響的美國生產商,以及使用這些征稅商品作為中間投入的美國生產商都是潛在的輸家。另外,如果美方對余下的3000億美元中國出口商品(主要是進口彈性較小的消費品)征收25%的關稅,那么美國的家庭和廠商將承擔更高的稅后價格。一旦通脹率明顯上升,美聯儲將繼續收緊銀根,這對目前估值很高的美國股票和債券市場來說,將是一個災難。

        美方發動貿易戰的一個核心認知在于,把美國制造業在過去20年失業率的上升怪罪于中國的貿易順差。其實這是一個民粹主義色彩濃厚的低級錯誤認知。美國制造業失業率上升主要來自于機械自動化對于人力的取代,而非貿易不平衡。據統計,1992至2012年,美國貿易逆差導致的美國制造業就業人數下降僅占15.1%,其余則來自于制造業生產率的快速提高。因此,就算是美國降低貿易赤字,美國制造業就業人數仍然會持續減少。

        值得強調的是,我們要警惕美方發動的貿易戰的政治化傾向。近來,隨著中國的民營企業華為公司被列入實體制裁名單,美方發動貿易戰的性質開始發生了變化,有向政治化方面轉化的危險傾向,這不得不引起我們的警覺。可以說,美國以國家力量對一個全球化的實業公司進行打壓,這已不是他們所標榜的追求“國際貿易平衡”的初衷,這是在粗暴切割早已相互依存的全球生產鏈與供應鏈結構以及全球協作體系。

        這不禁使人聯想到冷戰時期某些西方國家向社會主義陣營國家禁運的歷史,不禁使人想起當年的“巴統”——巴黎統籌委員會,聚攏在“巴統”里的某些西方國家出于意識形態的考慮,粗暴阻止西方國家向社會主義國家出口所謂敏感、重要的戰略物資。美方這種簡單粗暴的落后做法,是在開歷史的倒車,是其“筑墻”思維在國際貿易中的體現,國際社會必須警惕這種做法的巨大負面效應。

        盡管美方公開進行經濟霸凌,但走向新一輪改革開放的中國不能因其影響而打亂了我們的戰略節奏,我們要清醒地看到中美貿易戰的實質及其復雜性與長期性,保持自身的戰略定力,同時警惕狹隘民族主義情緒泛起。目前,美國國內還沒有形成對華政策的明確共識,影響美國對華政策的主要有兩股力量,除了主張經濟優先、追求現實利益的“務實派”外,還有追求對華戰略遏制與意識形態對抗的反華建制派等,后者才是我們應該要真正擔憂和防范的。

        今年是中美正式建交40周年。在全球化背景下,中美之間有著不可阻斷的聯系,中美兩國之間的戰略合作基本面,比如全球安全與和平、地區熱點、能源、糧食、氣候變化等,都是不能忽視的客觀存在。中美合作可以辦成有利于兩國和世界的大事,中美對抗對兩國和世界肯定是災難。

       

        (作者系華僑大學國際關系學院院長、教授)

      作者簡介

      姓名:林宏宇 工作單位:

      轉載請注明來源:中國社會科學網 (責編:賈偉)
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